Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks

نویسنده

  • A. R. Pagan
چکیده

This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identi…cation of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the in‡uential work of Blanchard and Quah (1989), and shows that structural equations with known permanent shocks can not contain error correction terms, thereby freeing up the latter to be used as instruments in estimating their parameters. The approach is illustrated by a re-examination of the identi…cation schemes used by Wickens and Motto (2001), Shapiro and Watson (1988), King, Plosser, Stock, Watson (1991), Gali (1992, 1999) and Fisher (2006). JEL Classi…cations: C30, C32, E10 Key Words: Permanent shocks, structural identi…cation, error correction models, IS-LM models. We are grateful to two anonymous referee and the Co-editor (Tim Cogley) for their helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper which was entitled On Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks and Exogenous Variables. The research of the …rst author was supported by ARC Grant DP0449659.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

On Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks and Exogenous Variables

This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identi…cation of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the in‡uential work of Blanchard and Quah (1989), and shows that structural equations for which there are known permanent s...

متن کامل

Business cycles in Iran: Evidence from asymmetry and correlated shocks

In this Paper, business cycle asymmetry in Iran has been investigated using a nonlinear unobserved component model. In this regard, according to Kim and Nelsonchr('39')s (1999) interpretation of Friedman plucking model (1993), asymmetric transitory component has been modeled and simultaneously the possibility of a correlation between transitory and permanent shocks has also been considered. The...

متن کامل

Fads Models with Markov Switching Hetroskedasticity: decomposing Tehran Stock Exchange return into Permanent and Transitory Components

Stochastic behavior of stock returns is very important for investors and policy makers in the stock market. In this paper, the stochastic behavior of the return index of Tehran Stock Exchange (TEDPIX) is examined using unobserved component Markov switching model (UC-MS) for the 3/27/2010 until 8/3/2015 period. In this model, stock returns are decomposed into two components; a permanent componen...

متن کامل

Stochastic Permanent Breaks by Robert F . Engle

1 This paper aims to bridge the gap between processes where shocks are permanent and those with transitory shocks by formulating a process in which the long run impact of each innovation is time varying and stochastic. Frequent transitory shocks are supplemented by occasional permanent shifts. The stochastic permanent breaks (STOPBREAK) process is based on the premise that a shock is more likel...

متن کامل

Superior Information, Income Shocks and the Permanent Income Hypothesis

According to the permanent income hypothesis with quadratic preferences, savings should react only to transitory income shocks, but not to permanent shocks. The problem is that income shock components are not separately observable. I show how the combination of income realizations with subjective expectations can help to identify separately the transitory and the permanent shock to income, thus...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2006